Inflation Drops for the 15th Consecutive Time

Key Highlights

  •       Inflation Rate   – 12.48%

  •       Food inflation – 14.80%

  •       Core Inflation   – 10.9%

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2018. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.

The report shows inflation increased by 12.48% (year-on-year) in April 2018 which is 0.86% less than the recorded rate in March 2018 (13.34%). This reduction is the fifteenth consecutive time inflation rate has dropped since January 2017.

Core Inflation

Core inflation however increased by 0.83% in April 2018, down by 0.01% from the rate recorded in March 2018, on a month-on-basis.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending April 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 15.20%.

Food Inflation

The Composite Food Index rose by 14.80%. This was caused by increase in price of Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Fish, Bread and cereals, Oil and fats, Vegetables and Meat.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.91% in April 2018, up by 0.01% from 0.90% recorded in March.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.89%, 0.4% from the average annual rate of change recorded in March (19.29%).

The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, Potatoes, Yam and Other Tubers, Fish, Bread and cereals, Oil and fats, Vegetables, Coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, cheese and eggs.

Urban Inflation

There is a 12.89% reduction in the urban inflation rate (year-on-year) in April 2018 from 13.75% recorded in March. The rural inflation rate also dropped by 12.13% in April 2018, from 12.99% in March.

Meanwhile, the urban index rose by 0.85% in April 2018, reducing by 0.01 from 0.86% in March, on a month-on-month basis. For Rural Index, it also rose by 0.82%, with no change from the recorded figure of 0.82% in the previous month of March.

The corresponding 12 month year-on-year rural inflation rate in April 2018 is 14.95% compared to 15.34% in March while the corresponding urban index is 15.47% which is less than 15.87% reported in March, 2018.

All Items Inflation (states)

Meanwhile, during the month under review, Kebbi recorded the highest all items inflation with a figure of 1.73%.  Rivers (1.72%) and Lagos (1.60%) followed in that order, while Bauchi (0.01%) recorded the slowest rise and Kaduna and Kano recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in April 2018.

Implication

For investors, falling inflation means lower yields on treasury bills and other government securities. For select borrowers, the drop in inflation in theory should lead to lower rates.

Source: Nairametrics

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